Some Areas of Lake Norman Level Off in Quarter Two.
While much of the information being reported in the media in our region revolves around inventory shortages and skyrocketing prices, the actual conditions in Lake Norman’s luxury real estate market (above $500,000 in value) can vary from neighborhood to neighborhood and price segment to price segment. We break the area down into it’s most popular communities, and then the pricing segments within those communities (under $1 million, $1-2m, and $2m plus) to analyze how conditions can be different depending on what price point or area you’re evaluating.
After a pretty torrid start to the year, the Lake Norman communities generally tended to settle into more steady activity, mostly in line with last year’s busy second quarter, with some areas slightly off, and some exceptionally hot areas posting strong gains. Davidson, the North Shore above the 150 bridge, and Mooresville all posted robust activity in the mid-market range below $1 million in list price, posting increased unit sell thru gains of over 20%. Mooresville and the North Shore area showed double digit sell thru gains in the range just over $1 million, while Cornelius and Mooresville finished off the quarter with a strong ultra luxury closing levels above $2 million. While showings and prices per foot have generally trended upward at single digit % increases, there were some exceptions and changing dynamics as the quarter came to a close.
Showings-Several areas posted strong showing increases, with Davidson and Mooresville posting over 15% increases in showings in the lower luxury price points, while inventory constrained Cornelius showed strength in the range between $1 million and $2 million as did the West Shore. Reflecting the volatility in recent financial market performance due to trade uncertainties, the more discretionary ultra luxury market over $2 million showed some slowing in showing activity during June and early July and will bear watching.
Pricing Trends-Per square foot prices in Cornelius and Davidson trended up in the lower segment, posting 3% increases, while tight inventory in Cornelius’s million dollar segment spurred a 22% increase in prices per square foot, surging from 285 psf to 349 in this year’s Q2. Prices in the ultra luxury segment above $2 million, with it’s much smaller sample size and high level of variable features (view, finishes, updates) are much harder to quantify in terms of averages.
Inventory-Inventory levels in most price segments reflected fairly balanced conditions, with most higher activity price points showing anywhere from 4 months to 8 months’ supply of homes. In a few of the more land locked areas inventory dipped to 3 months or less such as Davidson’s historic center as well as the million dollar market down Jetton Road in Cornelius.
Below are the community updates for Lake Norman.
The hot market in Cornelius cooled just slightly, with 44 homes closing in the mid-market
segment (compared with 48 last Q2) while the 1m to 1.99m range saw a slight dip on solid activity and showings, posting 15 sales vs last year’s 17. The range above $2 million posted a very healthy 7 closings including a market topping $4 million dollar Ivester Jackson deal to go with another IJ $2.75 million dollar deal in which the firm represented both buyer and seller.
Ironically, showings in the 1m-1.99m range increased for the quarter by almost 30%, while the ultra-luxury price point above $2 million saw a June in which stock market jitters and trade discourse saw showings temporarily drop by 50%. While the mid-market range saw inventory levels drop to just over 4 months’ supply, the upper ranges offered more options for buyers, with over 10 months’ supply in the ultra-luxury price point.
Recent Ivester Jackson | Christie’s Sales in Cornelius
New Ivester Jackson | Christie’s Listings in Cornelius
Davidson’s typically strong spring mid-market activity showed up with a feverish rally
after a slower start to the year. Quarter 2 saw a surge in showing appointments by over 40%, which resulted in 41 homes closing in the $500,000 to $999,000 range, an increase of just under 50% over last year’s Q2.
Inventory dropped to under 5 months’ supply in that price point, with another 29 homes pending heading into the third quarter. The range above $1 million continued to emerge in Davidson, with 5 homes changing hands, and total showings increasing by about 37% on a fairly small level of activity. Inventory in the million dollar segment in Davidson sat at roughly 8 months of supply, conditions favoring buyers a bit more than in the more competitive lower price points in Davidson.
Recent Ivester Jackson | Christie’s Sales in Davidson
New Ivester Jackson | Christie’s Listings in Davidson
Mooresville saw one of the bigger second quarter spikes in the region, with the mid-level luxury segment’s closings jumping from 72 to 96 homes sold, an increase of 33%, while the 1m-1.99m range also jumped, doubling last year’s total of 10 Q2 closings with 20 this year (and another 21 pending for the third quarter).
Activity in Mooresville is now following the earlier example of seeing much more activity outside the private golf club communities once they were built out. Like the other areas of the region, activity slowed as the price segments went up in value, with activity above the $2.5 million range restricted to a handful of showings. The range above $2 million did see 4 closings and another 3 pending contracts, rebounding after a slower early spring.
Recent Ivester Jackson | Christie’s Sales in The West Shore
New Ivester Jackson | Christie’s Listings Mooresville
The West Shore area saw another solid quarter in the mid-market luxury segment below $1 million. 52 homes changed hands, on par with last year’s active spring quarter. The segment above $1 million saw limited activity, with 2 homes closing and another 3 homes pending as we move into July.
Showings in both segments declined slightly compared to last year’s same period. The dynamic in mid-market segment remained fairly neutral, with just under 6 month’s inventory, considered a balanced market, while the range above $1 million favored buyers, with just over 30 months of inventory on the market.
Recent Ivester Jackson | Christie’s Sales in The West Shore
New Ivester Jackson | Christie’s Listings in The West Shore
The North Shore area of Lake Norman above the 150 bridge continued to emerge as a new destination for more buyers. With Sisters Cove on the Mooresville side and the new mixed-use shopping center on the west side in Terrell, buyers pushed closings to 36 homes sold in the mid-level luxury segment, compared to 24 in last year’s Q2, an increase of 50% with another 25 pending. The million dollar range also surged, with 8 homes closing and another 8 pending as we move into quarter 3 of 2018.
Showing activity was about on par with last year’s second quarter, but it’s clear this region is starting to get its share of lake buyers.
Recent Ivester Jackson | Christie’s Sales in The North Shore
Lake Norman Market Forecast